Oh yes, I'm in complete agreement. All of these programmes are undertaken with at least the implication that they are preparation for bigger things. Right from the start of the space race, people like Korolev and von Braun (someone should write one of those semi-factual sort of novels about the life and times of Wernher von Braun - a man of fascinating contradictions. A blue-skies idealist who flirted with people like Heinrich Himmler to get his dreams realised...) were dreaming of Mars. Well, Mars is still just as far away... But yes, what's the point if only the robots get to see any of this at close quarters?
Well yeah, applications, strategy, profit etc. The thing is, all the stuff that's militarily useful or commercially profitable takes place in low orbit - satellites, and more satellites. There's been talk over the years, of course, of orbiting solar power arrays and mining and low-g manufacturing, but the fact remains that the costs to get to orbit are so astronomical that there's practically nothing you can do in space that you can't do more profitably here on Earth... So unless someone invents some radical launch technology that massively reduces the costs (which is hard to see in the short term)...
The thing a lot of space cadets talk about nowadays is Helium 3 - the great solution to our energy problems, allegedly. The thing is, not only is it unclear that we will ever develop practical fusion reactors, given that it's something that's been "twenty years away" since about 1950, He3 reactors are actually probably more technically complex and inefficient than many of the less kewl (less space-reliant) designs. And even if someone did develop a practical He3 reactor and sell the world on it, it's probably more efficient and less costly to extract He3 from seawater than mining it on the Moon or from gas giant atmospheres... So, another dream punctured...
I'm starting to think that space tourism for the mega-rich might be the thing that drives any serious manned space exploration/colonisation effort. You know, as technology becomes cheaper over time and if/when these space tourism companies become more established and generate more capital, you could see them eventually offering trips to the Moon, maybe even Mars by the end of the century... But again, it's like the robots - what's the point of commercial flights to Mars if you have to be Bill Gates to afford the fare?
Hey maybe the Singularity will happen and we'll all become cyborg demigods who can have their own individual Mars ships? Nah... XD
Yes, if people could just get along! ;D No, really. I sort of hope China will see the prestige and bragging rights as sufficient justification for at least a Lunar programme, just to see honest-to-god people walking around there in my own lifetime. Maybe they could get caught up in another ridiculous decade-long space race with India and Japan... We might even get a Mars flight out of it this time... That's not too much to ask for surely? :D
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branchandroot
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Date: 2011-04-20 07:15 am (UTC)Well yeah, applications, strategy, profit etc. The thing is, all the stuff that's militarily useful or commercially profitable takes place in low orbit - satellites, and more satellites. There's been talk over the years, of course, of orbiting solar power arrays and mining and low-g manufacturing, but the fact remains that the costs to get to orbit are so astronomical that there's practically nothing you can do in space that you can't do more profitably here on Earth... So unless someone invents some radical launch technology that massively reduces the costs (which is hard to see in the short term)...
The thing a lot of space cadets talk about nowadays is Helium 3 - the great solution to our energy problems, allegedly. The thing is, not only is it unclear that we will ever develop practical fusion reactors, given that it's something that's been "twenty years away" since about 1950, He3 reactors are actually probably more technically complex and inefficient than many of the less kewl (less space-reliant) designs. And even if someone did develop a practical He3 reactor and sell the world on it, it's probably more efficient and less costly to extract He3 from seawater than mining it on the Moon or from gas giant atmospheres... So, another dream punctured...
I'm starting to think that space tourism for the mega-rich might be the thing that drives any serious manned space exploration/colonisation effort. You know, as technology becomes cheaper over time and if/when these space tourism companies become more established and generate more capital, you could see them eventually offering trips to the Moon, maybe even Mars by the end of the century... But again, it's like the robots - what's the point of commercial flights to Mars if you have to be Bill Gates to afford the fare?
Hey maybe the Singularity will happen and we'll all become cyborg demigods who can have their own individual Mars ships? Nah... XD
Yes, if people could just get along! ;D No, really. I sort of hope China will see the prestige and bragging rights as sufficient justification for at least a Lunar programme, just to see honest-to-god people walking around there in my own lifetime. Maybe they could get caught up in another ridiculous decade-long space race with India and Japan... We might even get a Mars flight out of it this time... That's not too much to ask for surely? :D